Raceday focus with Ray Thomas

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BLAKE Shinn, who rode the Doncaster Mile-Sydney Cup double during The Championships, could be in for another profitable afternoon on Tuesday.

Shinn has a full book of eight rides at the picturesque provincial track as he looks to continue his outstanding Sydney autumn carnival form.

He won the Doncaster on Happy Clapper and Sydney Cup on Who Shot Thebarman and his sheer consistency across the two days of The Championships secured the jockey the coveted Nathan Berry Medal as the carnival’s leading jockey.

That form has taken him to 57 Sydney wins for the season and second position on the Sydney jockeys’ premiership, just nine wins behind Brenton Avdulla.

With just over three months of the 2017-18 season remaining, Shinn has given himself a chance of securing a second Sydney premiership a decade after he first claimed the title.

Shinn’s immediate focus is Hawkesbury today, where his mounts including promising Youngstar, the $2.10 favourite for the HRC Motel Maiden (1500m).

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HAWKESBURY BEST BETS WITH RAY THOMAS

BEST BET: LOVANI (Race 8, No. 4)

This looks a perfect race for Lovani. She led for a long way over 1800m at Rosehill last start before finishing second to a promising horse, Roman Son. Lovani probably takes the sit behind Social Element today and gets the run of the race. I’m confident she will run a strong 2000m.

NEXT BEST: YOUNGSTAR (Race 6, No. 12)

Three-year-old filly taking on older horses, but there was a lot to like about her first-up effort when third to Montrachet at Rosehill earlier this month. She is bred to appreciate getting out in distance, so stepping up to 1500m today suits.

BEST VALUE: PRIME CANDIDATE (Race 2, No. 5)

Prime Candidate is worth a gamble at $3.90 for his clash with Dunatun ($2.40 favourite) for what looks a two-horse race. Prime Candidate is lightly raced but has plenty of natural speed and will give the topweight something to chase.

BEST EXOTIC: QUADDIE: R5: 1, 4, 9, 11; R6: 8, 11; R7: 1, 2, 7; R8: 1, 4.

TRAINER TO FOLLOW: JOE PRIDE

Joe Pride has three entries but all look winning chances — Oria (R1), Darajilla (R3) and Our Mantra (R7).

JOCKEY TO FOLLOW: BLAKE SHINN

Blake Shinn has a super book of rides but Corey Brown also looks set for a successful afternoon with the likes of Dunatun (R2), Military Academy (R3), Prahaar (R4), Smiling Manolito (R6) and Our Mantra (R7).

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A three-year-old filly by High Chaparral, Youngstar was resuming when she ran a good third behind Montrachet at Rosehill over 1200m earlier this month.

Shinn didn’t ride Youngstar that day but has studied replays of the race and was impressed by the filly’s closing effort over an unsuitable short race distance.

“Youngstar looks a progressive, ­middle-distance staying type of filly,’’ Shinn said. “She goes back to the provincials, looks well placed today and the 1500m is going to suit her.’’

Shinn rode juvenile Nicco Lad at his debut when a half-length third to Momentum Factor and Adana at Warwick Farm late last month and the jockey is confident the gelding can break through in the Schweppes 2YO Maiden (1100m).

“I thought Nicco Lad ran a very game race on debut,’’ Shinn said.

“We were three wide the speed and he still surged to win the race in the straight, but the first two had cosier runs and got him late. But he gave me a nice feel and that race experience will hold him in good stead.’’

Most of Shinn’s mounts are among the favoured runners today but Plymouth Road looks value at $11 for the Stayers Prelude Benchmark 78 Handicap (2000m).

Plymouth Road has had two runs back from a spell and impressed Shinn when fourth to Drochaid on a heavy track at Gosford over 1600m last start.

“I thought Plymouth Road ran well at Gosford because he was forced wide at the 600m and stuck on well,’’ Shinn said.

“He’s stepping up to 2000m and I would like to ride him positively early and settle in the first three or four. He’s a handy horse who is in for a good ­preparation.’’

Shinn’s other rides include Off The Dial (race one), Prime Candidate (race two), With Purpose (race three), Stryke Rock (race four) and Iggy The Moocher (race seven).

HAWKESBURY INSIDE MAIL WITH RAY THOMAS

RACE 1

The well-bred Oria hasn’t raced since scoring an easy win in a Goulburn maiden in December but trainer Joe Pride has her ready for a winning comeback after two solid trials. She went to the line under a tight hold to beat Second Step in a Warwick Farm heat last week. Tapavino got all favours at Wyong when she edged out Cuba, but was then trapped three wide without cover and just missed a place on this track last start. Grundalina hit the line hard when resuming and Exellas is racing consistently.

BETTING STRATEGY: ORIA TO WIN

RACE 2

Dunatun is aiming for his fourth win this campaign but the 5kg he is conceding Prime Candidate will be telling. I am leaning to Prime Candidate, a Goulburn winner on debut last spring who resumed over 1100m here and led for a long way before finishing fifth to Vellor. He has since trialled well at Gosford and will be up on speed, lengths in front of Dunatun. They should run one-two today, with Cosmic Cameo and Mr Tindall other chances.

BETTING STRATEGY: PRIME CANDIDATE TO WIN

RACE 3

Military Academy raced in a forward position and hit the front in the straight before being swamped by the impressive Extreme Measure over Tuesday’s course and distance. Fitter now. With Purpose was wide without cover at Muswellbrook on debut and held on well for third. Daydream Explorer has been placed in seven of her 16 starts since resuming and she gets in well at the weights. Darajilla showed speed in a recent trial so watch any market moves.

BETTING STRATEGY: BOX TRIFECTA 2, 3, 4, 5

RACE 4

Stock Up was city-placed in her debut preparation before resuming with a good second to Montrachet at Rosehill on April 2. Desert Lord, a first starter from Team Hawkes, had plenty in reserve when a close fourth in a Rosehill trial. Phoenix Charm hit the line strongly to just miss on debut at Gosford. Bigger track should suit. Stryke Rock was just beaten by Red Rover at Rosehill, which is strong form here.

BETTING STRATEGY: STOCK UP TO WIN; SAVER ON DESERT LORD EACH WAY

RACE 5

Nicco Lad was three wide without cover on debut at Warwick Farm and held on for a close third behind Momentum Factor in a strong race. Invictus Salute was impressive in a recent trial win at Warwick Farm. If this filly brings her trial form, she will be hard to beat. Priestess has also trialled nicely for her debut and Home Win, a full brother to Sweet Idea and Showtime, hasn’t been tested in his trials.

BETTING STRATEGY: NICCO LAD TO WIN; QUINELLA 1, 11

RACE 6

Youngstar, a High Chaparral filly, was under pressure a long way out in her Rosehill 1200m debut but worked to the line strongly late for third to Montrachet and Stock Up (who is in race 4). The step up to 1500m should suit. Tunero had trouble keeping up in a Warwick Farm 1200m when resuming but has trialled nicely since. Smiling Manolito is back to his right trip and Happy Hustler got to the line well at Goulburn.

BETTING STRATEGY: YOUNGSTAR TO WIN

RACE 7

Our Mantra has to shoulder 62kg but he can still win. He was outclassed in the Tulloch Stakes last start but I feel he found the 2000m beyond him. Better suited back to 1600m. Red Captain was too tough for his rivals over 1500m here last start. Weekend Affair is better suited on a firm track and Iggy The Moocher is having his first start for new trainer Bjorn Baker but his bush form suggests he will be competitive.

BETTING STRATEGY: BOX TRIFECTA 1, 2, 3, 7

RACE 8

Lovani led for home but was no match for the impressive Roman Son at Rosehill over 1800m last start. She was Group 2-placed at Flemington last spring and is fitter for three runs from a spell. Social Element is a tough staying type who was competitive in stakes races over summer. Fitter for two runs back. Spooky Wooky and Plymouth Road are chances.

BETTING STRATEGY: LOVANI TO WIN

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